Luckily, at least for those of us in the Bay Area, most of the smoke from the massive Park Fire burning in four inland NorCal counties has not been blowing our direction — at least not yet. But smoke from the Pedro Fire, a much smaller fire that is burning near Modesto, is headed our way.

The Bay Area Air Quality Management District issued an air quality advisory for Wednesday because of the expected inflow of smoke from the Pedro Fire, which has burned around 900 acres in Mariposa and Tuolumne counties, east of Modesto.

Air quality is expected to remain in the Moderate category around the Bay Area, but we can expect likely hazy skies, and possibly the smell of smoke at higher elevations.

The air quality district issued a similar advisory for Sunday and Monday as some high-level smoke from the Park Fire drifted our way and caused some high-level haze. Bay Area air quality remained in the Good and Moderate categories despite the haze.

"Wildfire smoke contains fine particulate matter and other harmful pollutants. Exposure to wildfire smoke is unhealthy, even for short periods of time," the district says.

They advise anyone with respiratory conditions to remain indoors with good air filtration and take precautions during these advisories.

The Park Fire likely still remains the biggest threat to our air quality, as it is still only 18% contained. It has burned 389,791 acres as of this morning, up from 383,000 acres on Tuesday.

Another round of heat is coming Wednesday after a brief respite, though San Francisco won't feel too much of it. And wildfire smoke from far Northern California could end up hazing our skies as well.

This next heat-dome-related heatwave is set to start Wednesday afternoon, with a Heat Advisory issued for much of the SF Peninsula and parts of Marin, Sonoma, and Napa counties, and an Excessive Heat Warning issued for most of the inland East Bay, Solano County, and other areas to the north and east. These take effect at 11 am Wednesday, and go through 8 pm Friday.

"We lose a few degrees today, but gain them back mid-to-late week," says the National Weather Service's Bay Area bureau. "It looks like one more peak to this heat event, then we have a better shot at normal temps by the end of this weekend!"

The weather service is warning people without adequate cooling systems who are heat sensitive to seek cooling centers or other relief during this time.

The forecasts are in the 90s to lower 100s for those in the Heat Advisory area, and up to the 110s for parts of the East Bay and elsewhere that were similar scorching last week and into the weekend.

Tuesday has seen a mostly fog-covered day for much of San Francisco, with temperatures topping out in the high 60s. The forecast only calls for a high of 73 in the city on Thursday, as that natural ocean air-conditioning continues to spare us from baking too much.

The inland East Bay especially may see an orange tinge to the sky from high-level wildfire smoke blowing down from the Shelly Fire in Siskiyou County, which has burned over 6,200 acres and is 0% contained. Even further north, in Modoc County, the North Fire has burned over 4,300 acres and is 50% contained.

The Royal Fire near Lake Tahoe has grown at a slower pace, and is now around 200 acres, up from 170 acres on Monday. It is still 0% contained.

"Most of this [smoke] is above ground level, so air quality remains in the good to moderate category mostly," says Chronicle meteorologist Anthony Edwards. "Smoke models show a bit more blowing in this evening before sunset."

Fire season is barely underway, and this doesn't bode well. Many of you will recall the infamous orange sky day that occurred in San Francisco on September 9, 2020, which occurred because of a confluence of factors including a massive amount of smoke being pushed south from multiple wildfires that were burning in Northern California and Oregon. Hopefully we won't see anything like that again this year.

Related: Royal Fire Near Lake Tahoe, Possibly Caused By Escaped Campfire, Burns 170 Acres

Photo: Cody Chan

If you smell smoke outside today in San Francisco, it's not your imagination. But it is blowing in from hundreds of miles up the coast.

We've been relatively lucky so far this fire season in the Bay Area, but it's far from over yet. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District issued an air quality advisory for Tuesday and Wednesday due to drifting wildfire smoke from far northern California and southern Oregon.

The particulate matter in the air is not expected to exceed national health standards or prompt a Spare the Air alert, officials said, but it may cause hazy skies and the smell of smoke — which is indeed present in SF right now.

Still, the air district is recommending keeping windows closed if the smell of smoke is present, and to switch air conditioners to re-circulate mode, if you own an air conditioner.

Some of these fires to our north, like the SRF Lightning Complex fire (27,573 acres) and Smith River Complex fire (92,180 acres), have been burning for over month, having been sparked by lightning storms in mid-August. They are burning in forests on both sides of the Oregon border and across multiple NorCal counties, including Trinity, Siskiyou, Del Norte, and Humboldt.

The smoke map below shows where the fires are, and shows how much of the San Francisco Peninsula is showing yellow for "moderate" air quality impact.

Get air quality updates over the next 24 hours here.

It’s that time of year again. Bad air quality season, that is.

The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) issued an air quality advisory for Wednesday afternoon and evening as the “Flat Fire” continues to blaze in southwestern Oregon amid the West Coast heat wave.

Smoke from the wildfire, which broke out in the Rogue River-Siskiyou National Forest in Oregon on Saturday, is forecast to drift south over the Bay Area by Wednesday afternoon.

BAAQMD warned residents to anticipate hazy conditions, and that those residing at higher elevations in the East Bay, North Bay, and Santa Clara Valley regions may also experience the smell of smoke.

In light of the situation, officials are urging individuals, especially those with health conditions, to take the usual necessary precautions, according to KRON4. Those who detect smoke in the air are strongly encouraged to remain indoors, if possible, with windows and doors securely closed. Additionally, setting air conditioners and car vent systems to recirculated air mode can help minimize exposure.

The agency stopped short of issuing a Spare the Air alert, however, because pollutant levels aren’t expected to exceed the national 24-hour health standard, it said.The Flat Fire is up to nearly 13,000 acres, with 0% containment, according to reports from the U.S. Forest Service.

Aerial view of the Flat Fire via Inciweb.

Top image: A shot from a wildfire camera in St. Helena showing smoke haze on Sunday morning, via Cal Fire

The dirty air from wildfire smoke could occur two to three times more frequently a generation or two down the line, thanks to a vicious cycle that makes the smoky air itself cause more wildfires.

The bar is now so low with California wildfires and deteriorating air quality that comes with them, that we considered it progress that the infamous burnt orange sky only returned for a sunrise and sunset or two in 2021, rather than the full day-long nightmare of 2020. But the bigger-picture news is not good. The poor air quality comes thanks to particulate matter caused by the smoke, tiny particles that can remain in the air and affect air quality hundreds of miles away.

And there is more and more of that particulate matter every year. The Chronicle reports on a study that says “the Pacific Northwest and parts of Northern California could see particle pollution from wildfires increase more than 50% by the middle of the century,” and then triple by the end of the century, according to researchers.

The research was published today in the academic journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which provides a free summary of the findings. “Fine particulate pollution over the US Pacific Northwest could double to triple during late summer to fall by the late 21st century under intermediate- and low-mitigation scenarios,” according to the paper’s abstract. “The historic fires and resulting pollution extremes of 2017–2020 could occur every 3 to 5 [years] under 21st-century climate change, posing challenges for air quality management and threatening public health.”

You’ll notice they referenced “mitigation scenarios,” which means the problem is correctable. But it also notes that if not corrected, the smoke itself will lead to more frequent wildfires down the line, because of the drying conditions it causes. But in addition to wildfires, the Chron notes the smoky air also causes “a vast array of previously unconnected health issues, from cardiovascular failure to birth defects to COVID-19.”

It’s hard to overestimate how the annual wildfires, which used to pretty much just be a California thing, now cover several western states, with haze that makes it all the way to the East Coast. It seems that smoky haze could even spread far further, and what we regionally call wildfire season could have effects all over the globe.

Related: Up to 5% of World's Giant Sequoia Trees Killed This Year In KNP Complex and Windy Fires [SFist]

Image: Stephanie Rossi Chen/SFist

The main entrance space outside the de Young Museum erupted with billows of colorful non-toxic smoke clouds early Saturday evening as part of Judy Chicago's Forever de Young open-air performance — leaving Golden Gate Park hazy and smelling of sulfur.

It was hard not to be aware of the fact that 82-year-old artist Judy Chicago was hosting her "once-in-a-lifetime" IRL piece in San Francisco. The event — a site-specific iteration of her famous Atmospheres displays — was organized to celebrate the artist’s exhibition at the de Young Museum, Judy Chicago: A Retrospective. Her smoke-filled event was either a sight to behold... or a test around how long one could hold their breath.

And how attendees perceived the event largely depended on which side of the performance they were positioned.

(I — later regrettably — chose to make the trek out Saturday and see Chicago's exhibit in person, rather than streaming it online, which I had previously planned on doing. Arriving at the de Young Museum’s main entrance, I was flanked by people on all sides who were delighted to have the chance to witness the performance. Children sat atop their parent's shoulders; selfie-sticks bobbed up and down in the shapeless crowd; couples who were fortunate enough to find unoccupied benches sat and drank atop of them before the performance began. But what we all presumably hadn't accounted for was that day's wind conditions and our position to Chicago’s yet-ignited work. What was implied by glossy campaign images showing clouds of multi-colored smoke became a completely different reality — one that, instead, mirrored a dystopian hellscape created by wildfire smoke. My clothes stank of burnt gunpowder afterward and, though the smoke has since been described as non-toxic, I found myself coughing for hours later.)

In a report by NBC Bay Area, nearby resident Vincent Staupe, who lives about a 10-minute walk from the de Young Museum, said he thought the park was on fire — before remembering that the performance was slated for Saturday evening.

“It was incredibly smoky for at least a half an hour," Staupe said of the aftermath. "I had to close all my windows. My air purifier symbol went red inside my apartment.”

It was estimated 4,000 people attended the event; another 2,500 tuned in to the livestream.

But if you weren't among the 6,500 or so who saw Chicago's Forever de Young exhibit play out in real-time, here are some pictures and videos of the event to peruse.

Remember: Art is subjective. So you decide for yourself where you stand on yesterday's pyrotechnic event in one of the Bay Area's most celebrated urban green spaces.

Photo: Courtesy of Twitter via @dipyourpizza

Smoke from the ongoing fires at the edge of the southern Sierra, the KNP Complex and Windy fires, will be moving at elevated levels over the Bay on Monday, creating hazy conditions.

The smoke model from the National Weather Service seen below shows the large smoke plume eminating from the KNP Complex fires and the Windy Fire, with the former still only 20% contained as of Monday. Both fires are burning near sequoia groves on national park land in Tulare County.

The model has most of the smoke clearing out of our area by Tuesday morning.

Because the smoke will remain aloft and is not expected to impact our air quality, the Bay Area air district did not extend a Spare the Air alert that expired on Sunday.

The heatwave the region experienced over the last few days is subsiding today, and a cooling trend sets in Tuesday through the end of the week, with below-normal temperatures expected.

As of Monday, the Windy Fire in Sequoia National Forest had grown about 700 acres overnight, to 94,746 acres, and it is 68% contained.

The KNP Complex, now active for 23 days, has burned 67,708 acres, and its containment level dropped back down to 11% as of Monday morning. The U.S. Forest Service says that containment dropped due to the growth in the size of the fire in recent days.

And, here's the explanation for the smoke movement: "The high-pressure ridge that has held smoke over the fire over the past few days will begin to break down as a low-pressure trough approaches today. This will allow a small increase in westerly winds aloft which will start to lift smoke up and out of the area. Local winds will remain light and terrain driven. Humidity levels will rise slowly as moister air moves into the area, which will help moderate fire behavior slightly in the coming days."

Meanwhile, the massive Dixie Fire, to our northeast, remains 94% contained, as it was last week. Responsibility for the remainder of the firefight was transferred Saturday from Cal Fire to the U.S. Forest Service, as the remaining hot spots are in Lassen National Forest, Lassen Volcanic National Park, and Plumas National Forest.

The Dixie Fire exploded Thursday night on two fronts, burning north around the town of Chester and into Lassen National Forest, and burning in the direction of the town of Susanville in Lassen County. And now the view from Susanville is as Martian as that orange-sky day we had in SF last fall.

The Dixie Fire grew by 110 square miles, or 70,000 acres, between Thursday and Friday, becoming the third largest wildfire in state history. And it's now official that the seven biggest fires in state history have all happened in the last three years.

Wildfire smoke is once again blanketing much of the state, though on the San Francisco Peninsula we're being protected somewhat by the marine layer and onshore wind flow. The National Weather Service has just tweeted animated GIFs showing the surface smoke forecast, and aloft smoke over the next two days.

Surface smoke:

Atmosphere smoke:

And here's a different illustration via a satellite picture:

Things are pretty clear around SF, though the North Bay and East Bay might be hazier/smokier today.

The current view from Jarbo Gap in Butte County isn't so great:

And this is the view from PG&E's ALERTWildfire camera at Butt Valley Reservoir in Plumas County:

On Thursday, this was what the Susanville camera looked like at one point — and KTVU has a timelapse video of the smoke rising from the Dixie Fire and obscuring the sun at this spot.

Katrina Brackett, who posted a video to Storyful of the smoke from Susanville, noted that many people who survived the Camp Fire in Paradise three years ago relocated to this area, to the town of Greenville (which was leveled by the Dixie Fire on Wednesday), and the town of Chester which is now surrounded by fire.

As of Friday morning, the fire had burned 432,800 acres, and was 35% contained.

San Francisco saw, like, two one-hundredths of an inch of rain early Thursday, so does that count as rain?

You may have woken up to wet front steps and back decks this morning and wondered what that was about, but it was just more of that marine layer spitting down some condensation on us. As the National Weather Services reports, there was a teeny, tiny amount of precipitation to moisten the grass and plants today, but not enough to clean the summer dust off things. Accumulation in SF was between 0.01 inches and 0.04 inches.

Weather service meteorologist Jeff Lorber tells the Chronicle that Oakland saw even less wetness, with less than one one-hundredth of an inch. But places like the Oakland and Berkeley hills might have seen a bit more.

"Air rushes up against the hills and as it rises, the cool air condenses and moisture falls down as precipitation," Lorber explained.

Meanwhile, we may start smelling smoke here later today or tomorrow — and it looks like the East Bay definitely will. Wildfire smoke from the Sierra and the Pacific Northwest is being pushed south along the coast, as shown in the model below. Yesterday the word was that it would mostly be noticeable in the North Bay, but the new weather service model suggests otherwise.

There's even more of the smoke aloft, the weather service says, but the animated gif above shows surface-level smoke over the next 24 hours.

Below, a satellite image showing the smoke coming down over Mendocino county.

And for a high-level perspective of our marine layer, here's an image taken today from the International Space Station as it passed over us.

Due to a particular wind pattern and wildfires in southern Arizona, smoke appears to be drifting a very long way and reaching parts of the Bay Area today.

In an unpleasant harbinger of the fire season ahead of us, some Bay Area residents reported smelling smoke outside early Wednesday. The National Weather Service caught wind (sorry) of this, and put up a smoke map on Twitter showing the fires in the southern part of Arizona, and where the smoke is getting carried through Wednesday afternoon.

The map shows parts of Los Angeles County and the Central Valley are likely smelling a lot more smoke from the Arizona fires today, unless it is being kept aloft.

A National Weather Service meteorologist, Gerry Diaz, tells the Chronicle that smoke smells are probably most likely at higher elevations, and in places like the Santa Cruz Mountains. But the fires are still very far away.

"We realize that especially given last year’s fires there is that more enhanced concern,” Diaz says, “but we do want to emphasize that if smoke is being smelled, especially up in the mountains and on the foothills, that is due to that smoke coming in from fires that are well to our east."

AZ Central reports that five major wildfires are currently burning across Arizona, with one near Flagstaff that's only 16% contained. As CNN reports, the much larger Telegraph Fire has begun merging with another fire, the Mescal Fire, and together they've burned over 210,000 acres in the Phoenix metro area. The communities of El Capitan, Dripping Springs, and Beverly Hills, all east of Phoenix, have been asked to evacuate.

Firefighters in the North Bay are on high alert as the heatwave descends over the Bay Area in the next 36 hours, with extra dry conditions increasing wildfire risk all over the region.

Air quality in San Francisco was listed as "Moderate," with an AQI of 56 as of 11 a.m. Wednesday morning.

Cool air will prevail for most of this week, as the marine layer off the San Francisco coast gathers some strength after remaining pretty weak for two days.

Saturday and Sunday saw some declining air quality thanks to wildfire smoke blowing down from the north and settling closer to ground level. But that is changing by Monday afternoon, as the National Weather Service forecasts, with the marine breeze set to push the current smoke back further inland. By late afternoon, most of the North Bay and East Bay should see the haze clear out as well as the smoke gets "advected," as the meteorologists say.

(And, P.S., this is the 21st day in September, made holy by the Earth, Wind & Fire song "September.")

Later in the week, though, temperatures are going to start to go up again, with that typical-for-late-September pattern that often brings a heatwave to San Francisco the same weekend as Folsom Street Fair — which this is, but the fair is of course a virtual event this year.

A warming pattern looks to be beginning on Friday and Saturday, as Weather Underground tells us, with Sunday likely being the peak for high temperatures around the Bay Area.

The National Weather Service also forecasts a late-week heatwave, with temperatures potentially to hit 80-ish in San Francisco on Sunday, and 98 in places like Santa Rosa and Livermore.

Get your last inhales of cool, crisp, breathable air this afternoon — because smokey horizons and worsening air conditions are likely to be over our heads again later this evening.

Well, it was good and fun (and healthy) while it lasted.

As ABC7 News Meteorologist Mike Nicco reports, the Bay Area could as early as tonight find itself veiled in smokey opaqueness again... one that's likely to only get thicker by the hour.

"Waking up Saturday morning, the winds are shifting, coming out of the north and bringing the North Complex and the August Fire Complex smoke," says Nicco. "About half of us will be covered by Saturday evening in haze and it just keeps getting thicker as we head through Sunday."

The smoke is said to drift toward us via a northerly periodic wind system, which will in turn film the atmosphere around the Bay Area, beginning in parts of North Bay and working its way across the rest of the Bay Area. (A National Weather Service smoke model also shows this to be true.) However, Nicco admits that South Bay might be spared from the poor air quality — or, at the very least, able to avoid the worst of it.

"By Saturday evening, it should be covering just about everywhere but the South Bay," adds Nicco.

But as we're seeing now, most of the Bay Area is now contending with "yellow" and "orange" air quality readings, per PurpleAir; swaths of SF still appear to be in the "green," however. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District has also issued a Spare the Alert for today due to poor air quality in the inland East Bay and North Bay.

How bad the air will be depends on where the smoke inevitably decides to settle in the clouds.

"There will be smoke in the middle parts of the atmosphere," explains Nicco, noting that we're not in for another Blade Runner-like cityscape nor a repeat of last week's now-historically terrible air quality. "The key will be how much will work into the lower layer."

Thankfully, clearer skies and cooler weather are slated to come our way again come Monday — so you'll only have to snuggle your air purifiers for just a few more days.

Related: 14 Photos Of San Francisco Landmarks Under a 'Blade Runner 2020' Orange Sky

Air Quality Will Not Hold As Temperatures Rise With High-Pressure System This Weekend

Image: Screenshot via purpleair.com

As forecast yesterday by those in the know, the smoke situation that has dimmed and discolored the sky over the Bay Area isn't going to magically clear on Friday. There isn't enough wind to push the smoke in any direction except swirling over us, according to the latest model.

"Smoke and haze also continue to reduce visibility across our entire region and a thick layer of smoke continues to blanket much of the state,” said the National Weather Service in a Friday morning statement. “Given that winds are forecast to remain light through a deep layer of the atmosphere today, the thick smoke layer will persist and visibilities will be slow to improve."

Below is the depressing illustration of the enormous cloud of wildfire smoke over the region and how it will not move as the hours go by today.

Air quality in San Francisco and many of the surrounding counties has been "purple" or "very unhealthy" for everyone since Thursday evening, and that isn't changing until — hopefully — tomorrow. This means the air is a lot worse to breathe than it was on Thursday morning.

PurpleAir was picking up AQI readings on the San Francisco peninsula of upwards of 300, with one reading of 352. As SFGate notes, these readings put the Bay Area at the top of the world's regions for the worst air quality anywhere right now.

STAY INDOORS!

Ash continues to accumulate on cars and all outdoor surfaces, and Wednesday's orange glow has given way to something more gray and ordinarily gloomy.

It's also the 25th consecutive "Spare the Air" day, continuing to set a record there.

As KPIX reports, San Francisco State officials canceled whatever limited on-campus classes or activities were happening on Friday.

Previously: Smoky Skies To Last At Least Through Friday As Air Quality Worsens In Bay Area

Image via PurpleAir

It doesn't smell smoky in San Francisco on Wednesday morning, just as it didn't for most of Tuesday. Yet the color of the sky turned an even more disturbing, Hades-like orange as everyone woke from their slumbers today, and it's thanks to fires that are burning very far away.

As meteorologist Daniel Swain explains, "Extremely dense [and] tall smoke plumes from numerous large wildfires, some of which have been generating nocturnal pyrocumulunimbus clouds ('fire thunderstorms'), are almost completely blocking out the sun across some portions of Northern California this morning."

North winds are pushing smoke from a fire outside Medford, Oregon — about 30 miles from the California border — as well as smoke from the August Complex and Oak fires in Mendocino and the Bear Fire/North Complex fires burning from Plumas into Butte County, up into the atmosphere over the Bay Area and much of the state.

Air quality remains good to moderate in San Francisco — while SFGate reports of smokier conditions in the East Bay, and ash falling like "heavy snow' at Concord Airport.

As the National Weather Service writes on Twitter Wednesday morning, "Scientists on the Farallon Islands call us daily to share weather observations. This morning they observed the same phenomenon many across the region noticed yesterday, that is: ominously dark skies (due to a suspended smoke layer aloft) but without smelling smoke."

SF residents who were here for the week following the Camp Fire in November 2018 will remember skies similar to this but with the air much more choked with smoke, as that fire's plume made a beeline for us at lower altitudes.

The New York Times today has yet another piece about how climate change is inextricably linked to these worsening fire seasons, basically saying this is our new normal for the fall.

"In pretty much every single way, a perfect recipe for fire is just kind of written in California," says Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, speaking to the Times. "But then climate change, in a few different ways, seems to also load the dice toward more fire in the future."

Ugh.

On the good news side, the large fire complexes within the Bay Area that erupted last month remain at 91-percent contained (LNU Complex) and 95-percent contained (SCU Complex), with the CZU Complex now at 83-percent contained. The past two windy nights have created challenges but no major disasters, and the Weather Service says the winds are about half what they were yesterday and dying out throughout the day.

Meanwhile, the raging Creek Fire near Yosemite has already surpassed the CZU Complex in size as it nears 153,000 acres, and at this speed it is poised to join the other two fire complexes in the top five largest fires in state history.